With his book The Innovator’s Dilemma, Clayton Christensen popularized the concept of disruptive technologies. The two great dangers that Christensen identified were that these threats initially don’t appear very threatening, and that well-managed businesses struggle to innovate away from the things that made them successful in the first place.

He introduced the Technology Trajectory Map to make that point and to show how new technologies relate to existing technologies and to market demands. These maps can be extremely helpful in projecting the impact of emerging technologies on businesses and industries.

Notice that the X-axis represents time to demonstrate how performance of each technology is changing over time. Typically, that axis is shown in months or perhaps years. The Y-axis in this simple example is simply labelled as “Performance” but in real use would be a specific factor of performance, such as speed, power, capacity, or whatever is most relevant for the markets you serve.

There are four lines on the map. The two solid lines represent two different types of technology while the two dotted lines represent customer requirements. The technology lines show the improvement in performance of each technology over time. The customer requirement lines show the change in the performance level required by the least demanding customers and the most demanding customers over time.

When a technology’s performance is below the least demanding customers’ requirements, then that technology is not yet viable in the market. When a technology’s performance is above the most demanding customers’ requirements, then that technology has overshot the market and customers aren’t likely to attribute value to the overperformance.

Technology Trajectory Maps can be extremely helpful in tracking technologies with the potential to disrupt your industry. Established technologies typically are near the “most demanding customers” line, while new technologies typically start below the “least demanding customers” line, but often with a steep trajectory. It’s critical to know when those new technologies will perform well enough to become a viable alternative for at least some customers, and when they will be close enough to the needs of virtually all customers. Doing so will help you plan when and how to be prepared to either leverage or combat (or both) the new technology.

Tools for creating a Technology Trajectory Map coming soon!